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The reason for the project's failure is the weakness of the estimate.

The reason for the project's failure is the weakness of the estimate.

Recently, I got a few jobs at a major company and got a chance, so I'm thinking about changing the stage a bit.



In development, I have written several times that the risk of having a low unit price lies with both the contractor.


However, in fact, my overall estimate is cheap.


In advance, this is not your sale. Rather, it's a bad thing.



So, what is it?



The price is lower because there are parts of the schedule that are desirable observations.



This is not limited to me, it is common for freelance engineers.


In fact, I have seen such a scene many times.


(A sweet estimate leads to the collapse of the project)



An engineer would make such a sweet estimate.


This is an unfortunate case for both the engineer (the contractor) and the client (the ordering party).



When I create a team myself, I may be the ordering party.


At that time, I have been aware of something recently.


It is to make sure that the order price is not lowered.


Otherwise, there is a high probability that the project will fail.



Therefore, you should not stay away from the unit price of the market.


By the way, the unit price can be easily determined. Now we have a useful a.i.!



First, let's take a look at the market.



The following is not my calculation, but AI's calculation.




  • 700,000 to 800,000 yen/month for front-end/back-end engineers

  • 600,000-700,000 yen/month for infrastructure engineers



Let's start with 700,000.



No surprises so far.


I also feel that an engineer would have a market value of about 700,000.



However, the problem is the development period.



This is often a sweet quote.



So how long would it take to develop a social media site on your own?


Let's ask ChatGPT.


Let's take a look at the famous X (Twitter) development effort.


By the way, if you calculate the function of X at the moment, it will be 100 million.


It is calculated by Twitter in the simple era.



There's no space, no paid features, no community - just tweet and follow.



Approximately 1,800-3,000 hours




  • 1,800 hours → Approximately 10.2 months

  • 3,000 hours → about 17 months (a year and a half)



You can tweet, follow, message, and edit your profile.


Simply calculating this at 700,000 per month would result in a minimum of 7 million and a maximum of 11.9 million per month.



When negotiating prices in this industry, a shorter timeframe is a top priority.


Cut down on unnecessary work and save money.


By the way, if you can shorten it to 4 months, it will be 2.8 million.



In fact, it is true that genius is shortened when it is made. A good engineer is a good choice if you don't care about the price, but if you want to get it out early.



But a good engineer raises the price.


The following is the market price of excellent engineers calculated by ChatGPT.




  • Freelance (Expert): 20-30 + Million

  • Experienced CTOs, AI/security specialists, etc.



Incidentally, engineers occasionally appear in personal tax evasion rankings.



1st Programmer: 49.27 million yen/7.16 million yen



In short, the top class is this annual income.


People who can do more than four times as much work as the average person. Let the freelance experts do the math here.


If 30 million people move for four months, it's 10 million.


However, even for this person, 4 months seems unrealistic...



Now, let's consider the case where the original normal engineer received it in 3 months.



70 x 3 = 2.1m



In short, this is the form in which the delivery time is also set at 3 months.


Then, some people may think that it is better to put aside the man-hours and extend the delivery time.


However, whether you make the schedule longer or shorter, the results will be the same.


Because it is a 90% incomplete project. I can assure you.



Why?



Obviously, because developers can't live.


It actually takes 17 months. This is the average, even if you don't want to set a delivery date.


210 divided by 17, what do you think happens?



123,000/month.



This is not revenue, this is sales.


What happens when this happens?



I can tell from my experience when ordering.


On the engineer side, you can either finish messy or, worst of all, you can run away with being abandoned on the way.



The following are the best stories from clients that have consulted me.



I can't get in touch with the engineer in charge last time.



In short, there are overwhelmingly many engineers fleeing.


It's life-threatening for incomes to change drastically. I don't know.



Miscellaneous is better. But that doesn't mean anything. It's full of bugs.



This defense is easy



Engineers need to put in a solid amount of effort.


That's the only way to make your relationship less unhappy.



Finally, the detailed man-hours provided by ChatGPT in the production of Twitter in the early stage are as follows




  • Requirement definition/specification design: 200-300h (screen, DB, API design, etc.)

  • User management: 100-150 hours (registration, login, profile editing, authentication)

  • Posting system: 250-400 hours (posting, uploading images/videos, deleting edits, etc.)

  • Timeline display: 200-300h (including performance considerations)

  • Follow-up/relationship building: 150-250h (Follow-up status management and reflection)

  • DM (chat type): 150-250h (communication processing, real-time WebSocket, etc.)

  • Notifications and real-time processing: 150-250 hours (likes, RTs, lips, notification badges, etc.)

  • Hashtag search: 100-200h (index optimization, trend reflection)

  • Moderation Report: 100-150h (Admin Flag/Hide Process)

  • Management screen: 100 to 200 hours (CMS-style management tools)

  • Infrastructure construction: 100-200h (Docker, Nginx, Redis, Gunicorn, etc.)

  • Testing/debugging: 200-300h (comprehensive testing, E2E, load testing, etc.)